Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation

1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
4.d4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

66.2%

45%75%
Floor64.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 68.4%.

Measured over 1.3K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.3K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.3K
Best context
not measured yet
Average game length
26 moves
Games that end decisively
97.6%
Draws
2.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +31.8% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 68.8%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499———
2500+—————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 67.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 69.9% expected score (59 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 68.4% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 72.2% expected score (48 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.5% expected score (91 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 69.1% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 67.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 64.6% expected score (98 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (133 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.7% expected score (114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 76.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 63.2% expected score (150 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 68.0% expected score (90 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 63.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 64.9% expected score (76 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 66.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 86.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation scores 66.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 64.1% and 68.4% — from 1.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation, White wins 65.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 32.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.2%. It rests on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 71.5% (185 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 65.5% in Blitz (568 games) against 71.0% in Rapid (153 games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a sharpness score of 97.6 (very decisive), meaning 97.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 68.9%, draws 1.3% and loses 29.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 69.6%. It rests on 111 Lichess games, which average 21 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 69.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 26.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 71.5%. It rests on 185 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 66.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 31.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.2%. It rests on 202 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 62.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 35.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.4%. It rests on 279 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 64.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 33.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.2%. It rests on 255 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 63.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 34.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.4%. It rests on 169 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 64.6%, draws 1.3% and loses 34.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.3%. It rests on 581 Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 63.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 32.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.5%. It rests on 568 Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 70.2%, draws 1.6% and loses 28.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 71.0%. It rests on 153 Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 65.0% of its games and loses 32.6%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.