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King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.4%

40%55%
Floor44.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.1%.

Measured over 12K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
12K
Best context
48.6% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Worst context
40.8% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
97.4%
Draws
2.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.1% at 0-999, 57.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (86 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (157 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (62 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (182 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (336 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (91 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (331 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (647 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.9% expected score (189 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (415 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (1,241 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (349 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (386 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (2,588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (956 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 22.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (1,647 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (936 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (268 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (57 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (77 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense
53.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense
52.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit
55.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense
51.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense
53.3%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense scores 45.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.6% and 46.1% — from 12K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
12K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense, Black wins 44.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.4% (148 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.3% in Blitz (7.0K games) against 45.3% in Rapid (2.8K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 306 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 40.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 58.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 614 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 40.2%, draws 1.6% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 561 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 53.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 148 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 53.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.