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Analyzer

King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.4%Range (90% confident): 44.6% – 46.1%Based on 12K games
0%45.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.6% – 46.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%2.6%53.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...h5
King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense
Analyzen=12K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.6%

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 45.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.6% and 46.1%), based on 12K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 57%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.1% win rate (306 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.4% win rate (614 games)
  • 1200-1399: 40.2% win rate (1,180 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.2% win rate (2,022 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.5% win rate (3,952 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.3% win rate (2,886 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (561 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.2% win rate (148 games)
  • 2500+: 56.5% win rate (10 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (29%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.2% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 45.4% win rate (1,891 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (6,966 games)
  • Rapid: 43.5% win rate (2,750 games)
  • Classical: 29.3% win rate (65 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (86 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (157 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (62 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (182 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (336 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (91 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (331 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (647 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.9% expected score (189 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (415 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (1,241 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (349 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (386 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (2,588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (956 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 22.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (1,647 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (936 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (268 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (57 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (77 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense
53.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense
52.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit
55.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense
51.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense
53.3%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 58.2% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (68.4%) outperforms Bullet (53.2%) by 15.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 48.5%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 306 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 58.1% (90% CI: 54.8%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 614 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 58.2% (90% CI: 55.8%-60.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 56.2% (90% CI: 54.4%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 561 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 42.5% (90% CI: 35.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 148 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.3%-55.1%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.4%) win rate for white (7.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.4%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense is statistically favors white with a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.