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King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense

199K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.9%Range (90% confident): 43.7% – 44.1%Based on 199K games
0%43.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.7% – 44.1%
Outcome Distribution
42.5%2.7%54.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.g3
King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense
Analyzen=199K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 43.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.7% and 44.1%), based on 199K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 9%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.5% win rate (22,053 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.9% win rate (26,432 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.1% win rate (34,945 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.5% win rate (42,898 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.0% win rate (44,319 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.5% win rate (24,655 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.7% win rate (3,471 games)
  • 2200-2499: 35.4% win rate (220 games)
  • 2500+: 9.1% win rate (4 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (263 games)
  • Bullet: 42.6% win rate (23,481 games)
  • Blitz: 43.1% win rate (115,526 games)
  • Rapid: 41.4% win rate (57,265 games)
  • Classical: 38.2% win rate (2,462 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (3,936 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11,824 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (6,183 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (3,831 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (14,607 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (7,758 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (174 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (62 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (3,911 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (19,420 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (11,009 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (3,953 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (24,765 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (13,188 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (945 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (3,929 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (28,584 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (11,183 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (604 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (3,033 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (14,620 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (6,860 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.8% expected score (140 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (769 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (1,636 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.0% expected score (1,049 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (116 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (69 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 24.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 199K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 57.8% win rate for white (3.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (59.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.7%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 55.6% (90% CI: 55.0%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 55.6% (90% CI: 55.1%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 55.4% (90% CI: 54.9%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 57.8% (90% CI: 56.4%-59.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 59.4% (90% CI: 53.9%-64.7%) win rate for white, based on 220 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 44.7%-54.8%) win rate for white (263 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.6%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.4%-56.5%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.5%) win rate for white (116K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.7%) win rate for white (57K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense has a 59.0% (90% CI: 57.4%-60.6%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense is statistically favors white with a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.