King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense
581 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.4%.
Measured over 581 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 581 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 581
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.2%
- Draws
- 2.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 21.5% at 1000-1199, 54.4% at 2200-2499.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (108 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (157 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (69 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (68 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense scores 47.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.6% and 50.4% — from 581 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 581+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense win rate?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense scores 47.0% (range, 90% confident: 43.6% – 50.4%) for Black, based on 581 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense performs best at 1400-1599, where it scores 54.3% for Black (57 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Blitz (45.0%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense scores 46.6% (range, 90% confident: 39.8% – 53.4%) for Black, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense scores 43.7% (range, 90% confident: 38.1% – 49.3%) for Black, based on 211 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense scores 50.4% (range, 90% confident: 43.6% – 57.2%) for Black, based on 144 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense scores 50.7% (range, 90% confident: 44.2% – 57.1%) for Black (159 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense scores 45.0% (range, 90% confident: 40.8% – 49.2%) for Black (374 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White with a 51.6% (range, 90% confident: 48.2% – 55.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.