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King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation

243K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

43.5%

40%55%
Floor43.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.7%.

Measured over 243K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 243K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
243K
Best context
50.0% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
38.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.7%
Draws
2.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.5% at 0-999, 32.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,151 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (6,437 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,701 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (177 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (9,755 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (12,976 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (2,945 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (343 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (17,112 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (22,267 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (5,032 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (165 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (427 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (22,068 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (30,907 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (6,454 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (314 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (233 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (23,089 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (25,830 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5,448 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 33.3% expected score (118 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (17,041 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (12,971 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (1,778 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7,593 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (2,254 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (294 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.2% expected score (1,627 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Continuations (2)
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation
65.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit
51.2%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 43.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.3% and 43.7% — from 243K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
243K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Black wins 42.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 243K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 47.5% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 43.1% in Blitz (114K games) against 42.7% in Rapid (24K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a sharpness score of 97.7 (very decisive), meaning 97.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.9%, draws 2.0% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 59.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.4%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.0%, draws 0.5% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.3%, draws 1.5% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 103K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 41.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 114K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 38.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 57.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 845 Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.3% of its games and loses 55.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.