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King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation

243K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.5%Range (90% confident): 43.3% – 43.7%Based on 243K games
0%43.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.3% – 43.7%
Outcome Distribution
42.3%2.3%55.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Qf6
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation
Analyzen=243K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.3%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 43.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.3% and 43.7%), based on 243K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 31%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.4% win rate (13,395 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.8% win rate (25,909 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.9% win rate (44,919 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.8% win rate (60,170 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.1% win rate (54,839 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.7% win rate (31,964 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.9% win rate (10,142 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.2% win rate (1,792 games)
  • 2500+: 31.0% win rate (13 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.0% win rate (1,391 games)
  • Bullet: 43.3% win rate (103,448 games)
  • Blitz: 41.7% win rate (113,792 games)
  • Rapid: 41.1% win rate (23,667 games)
  • Classical: 38.5% win rate (845 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,151 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (6,437 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,701 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (177 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (9,755 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (12,976 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (2,945 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (343 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (17,112 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (22,267 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (5,032 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (165 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (427 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (22,068 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (30,907 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (6,454 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (314 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (233 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (23,089 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (25,830 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5,448 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 33.3% expected score (118 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (17,041 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (12,971 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (1,778 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7,593 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (2,254 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (294 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.2% expected score (1,627 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Continuations (2)
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation
65.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit
51.2%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.2%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 243K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 59.4% win rate for white (1.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (55.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.5%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a sharpness score of 97.7 (very decisive), meaning 97.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 55.1%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.4%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 59.4% (90% CI: 57.4%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.7%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.5%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.4%) win rate for white (103K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 55.3%-55.8%) win rate for white (114K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.2%-56.3%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a 57.7% (90% CI: 54.9%-60.5%) win rate for white (845 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation is statistically favors white with a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.2%-55.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.