King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation
243K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
43.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.7%.
Measured over 243K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 243K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 243K
- Best context
- 49.9% at 0-999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 38.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.7%
- Draws
- 2.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.5% at 0-999, 32.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (93 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,151 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (6,437 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,701 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.0% expected score (177 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (9,755 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (12,976 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (2,945 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (56 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (343 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (17,112 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (22,267 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (5,032 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (165 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (427 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (22,068 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (30,907 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (6,454 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (314 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (233 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (23,089 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (25,830 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5,448 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (239 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 33.3% expected score (118 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (17,041 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (12,971 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (1,778 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (56 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7,593 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (2,254 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (294 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.2% expected score (1,627 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (149 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 43.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.3% and 43.7% — from 243K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 243K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate?
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 43.5% (range, 90% confident: 43.3% – 43.7%) for Black, based on 243K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation perform best?
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation performs best at 0-999, where it scores 47.5% for Black (13K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, UltraBullet (48.3%) outperforms Classical (40.4%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation?
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation has a sharpness score of 97.7 (very decisive), meaning 97.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 47.5% (range, 90% confident: 46.7% – 48.2%) for Black, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 43.8% (range, 90% confident: 43.3% – 44.3%) for Black, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 42.9% (range, 90% confident: 42.5% – 43.3%) for Black, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 42.9% (range, 90% confident: 42.6% – 43.3%) for Black, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 43.3% (range, 90% confident: 43.0% – 43.7%) for Black, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 44.0% (range, 90% confident: 43.6% – 44.5%) for Black, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 43.3% (range, 90% confident: 42.5% – 44.2%) for Black, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 39.4% (range, 90% confident: 37.5% – 41.4%) for Black, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 48.3% (range, 90% confident: 46.1% – 50.5%) for Black (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.5%.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 44.1% (range, 90% confident: 43.9% – 44.4%) for Black (103K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 43.1% (range, 90% confident: 42.8% – 43.3%) for Black (114K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 42.7% (range, 90% confident: 42.2% – 43.3%) for Black (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation scores 40.4% (range, 90% confident: 37.6% – 43.2%) for Black (845 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation a good opening?
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White with a 55.4% (range, 90% confident: 55.2% – 55.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.