King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit
395 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.
Measured over 395 games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 395 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 395
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.9% at 0-999, 68.2% at 2200-2499.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 71.5% expected score (38 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 37.1% expected score (41 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (43 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 33.0% expected score (22 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit scores 47.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.6% and 51.9% — from 395 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 395+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit, White wins 46.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 395 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 65.1% (65 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (208 games) against 46.1% in Rapid (75 games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 106 Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 46.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 208 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.0% of its games and loses 50.6%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.