16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 48.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 48.7%), based on 16K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~46%)
Best in Rapid (48%), worst in Bullet (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (1.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (53.7%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 43.0%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 194 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 529 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.9%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.9%-55.4%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.0%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.8%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 43.5%-54.5%) win rate for white (220 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.