TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit

1.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score49.9%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 52.0%Based on 1.6K games
0%49.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 52.0%
Outcome Distribution
48.0%3.7%48.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...f5
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit
Analyzen=1.6K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a 49.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 52.0%), based on 1.6K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -2.1% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.2 · Trap factor: +6.7 · n=1.6K

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 33% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (9 games)
  • 1200-1399: 65.3% win rate (36 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.1% win rate (91 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.7% win rate (267 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.4% win rate (510 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.2% win rate (412 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.0% win rate (225 games)
  • 2500+: 40.7% win rate (12 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (46%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.2% win rate (402 games)
  • Blitz: 48.5% win rate (1,024 games)
  • Rapid: 45.7% win rate (133 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (6 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 72.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (62 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (85 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (162 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (93 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (75 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (97 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (225 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.2%) outperforms Rapid (49.4%) by -1.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 44.0%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 267 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 45.3%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 510 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 41.3%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 412 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 225 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a 48.0% (90% CI: 43.9%-52.0%) win rate for white (402 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-50.8%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 42.4%-56.5%) win rate for white (133 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit is statistically balanced with a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.