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King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer

128K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.1%

45%60%
Floor53.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.

Measured over 128K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 128K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
128K
Best context
57.3% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Worst context
48.0% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +9.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.6 · Trap factor: −18.0 · 128K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.5% at 0-999, 39.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (560 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (673 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (259 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,273 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,460 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (493 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,973 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (3,828 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (5,334 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (11,136 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (2,534 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (6,191 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (21,960 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (5,612 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (6,273 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (22,784 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (6,985 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.6% expected score (221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (4,717 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (11,350 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (2,761 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (67 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (3,613 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (453 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (274 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 54.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 54.3% — from 128K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
128K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer, Black wins 52.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 128K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 55.3% (36K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.3% in Blitz (77K games) against 55.6% in Rapid (20K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 53.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 53.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 53.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 389 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 52.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 77K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 53.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 55.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 765 Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 52.4% of its games and loses 44.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.