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King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer

128K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.1%

45%60%
Floor53.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.

Measured over 128K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 128K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
128K
Best context
57.3% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Worst context
48.0% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +9.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.6 · Trap factor: −18.0 · 128K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.5% at 0-999, 39.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (560 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (673 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (259 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,273 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,460 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (493 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,973 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (3,828 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (5,334 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (11,136 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (2,534 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (6,191 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (21,960 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (5,612 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (6,273 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (22,784 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (6,985 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.6% expected score (221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (4,717 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (11,350 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (2,761 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (67 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (3,613 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (453 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (274 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 54.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 54.3% — from 128K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
128K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 54.1% (range, 90% confident: 53.8% – 54.3%) for Black, based on 128K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer performs best at 1800-1999, where it scores 55.3% for Black (36K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, UltraBullet (69.3%) outperforms Bullet (52.3%). Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 51.0% (range, 90% confident: 48.9% – 53.1%) for Black, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 51.7% (range, 90% confident: 50.2% – 53.1%) for Black, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 52.3% (range, 90% confident: 51.4% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 54.4% (range, 90% confident: 53.8% – 55.0%) for Black, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 54.7% (range, 90% confident: 54.2% – 55.1%) for Black, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 55.3% (range, 90% confident: 54.9% – 55.7%) for Black, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 52.9% (range, 90% confident: 52.3% – 53.5%) for Black, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 51.0% (range, 90% confident: 50.0% – 52.0%) for Black, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 49.0% (range, 90% confident: 44.9% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 389 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 52.3% (range, 90% confident: 51.8% – 52.7%) for Black (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 54.3% (range, 90% confident: 54.1% – 54.6%) for Black (77K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 55.6% (range, 90% confident: 55.1% – 56.2%) for Black (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer scores 57.6% (range, 90% confident: 54.6% – 60.5%) for Black (765 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer is good for Black with a 44.2% (range, 90% confident: 44.0% – 44.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.