13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 48.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.7% and 49.1%), based on 13K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 32% → 42%
Best in Classical (56%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 65.1% win rate for white (53 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (53.0%) outperforms Classical (39.7%) by 13.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 40.3%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 435 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.9%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.9%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.4%) win rate for white (8.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.3%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation has a 39.7% (90% CI: 34.1%-45.3%) win rate for white (204 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.