2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 64.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 62.9% and 65.8%), based on 2.8K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 56% → 33%
Best in Classical (81%), worst in Bullet (58%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 35.1% (90% CI: 33.6%-36.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 38.1% win rate for white (459 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (41.8%) outperforms Rapid (29.5%) by 12.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a sharpness score of 98.8 (very decisive), meaning 98.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 24 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 29.5% (90% CI: 23.1%-36.2%) win rate for white, based on 129 Lichess games. Average game length is 19 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 33.6% (90% CI: 29.4%-38.0%) win rate for white, based on 330 Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 35.7% (90% CI: 33.0%-38.5%) win rate for white, based on 800 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 0.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 34.9% (90% CI: 32.4%-37.4%) win rate for white, based on 991 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 38.1% (90% CI: 34.4%-41.9%) win rate for white, based on 459 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 41.8% (90% CI: 38.2%-45.5%) win rate for white (490 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.5%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 35.6% (90% CI: 33.7%-37.6%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a 29.5% (90% CI: 26.7%-32.4%) win rate for white (695 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense is slightly favors black with a 35.1% (90% CI: 33.6%-36.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.