King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense
2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
64.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 65.8%.
Measured over 2.8K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 1.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.8K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.8K
- Best context
- 63.9% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 60.7% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Average game length
- 24 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 98.8%
- Draws
- 1.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.3% at 0-999, 40.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 76.8% expected score (77 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 77.3% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 65.5% expected score (63 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 63.5% expected score (214 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 72.9% expected score (51 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (113 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.7% expected score (508 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 74.1% expected score (173 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 90.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (143 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.9% expected score (552 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 68.8% expected score (288 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (108 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (203 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.7% expected score (145 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 69.8% expected score (39 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 75.6% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense scores 64.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 62.9% and 65.8% — from 2.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense, Black wins 63.7%, draws 1.2% and loses 35.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.3%. It rests on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 69.2% (129 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 63.7% in Blitz (1.6K games) against 69.9% in Rapid (695 games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense has a sharpness score of 98.8 (very decisive), meaning 98.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 24 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 67.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 29.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 69.2%. It rests on 129 Lichess games, which average 19 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 65.0%, draws 1.4% and loses 33.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.7%. It rests on 330 Lichess games, which average 21 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 63.4%, draws 0.8% and loses 35.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.9%. It rests on 800 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 64.1%, draws 1.0% and loses 34.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.6%. It rests on 991 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 59.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 38.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.7%. It rests on 459 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 57.7%, draws 0.5% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 490 Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 62.9%, draws 1.5% and loses 35.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 69.3%, draws 1.2% and loses 29.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 69.9%. It rests on 695 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 63.7% of its games and loses 35.1%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.