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King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit

3.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.9%

40%55%
Floor47.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.3%.

Measured over 3.3K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.3K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.3K
Best context
48.1% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context
47.7% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
97.3%
Draws
2.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +3.7% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 62.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 8.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (89 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.8% expected score (92 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (152 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (346 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (203 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (598 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (124 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (230 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (628 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (172 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (402 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 65.6% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit scores 48.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 50.3% — from 3.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit, White wins 47.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 3.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 57.7% (194 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (2.1K games) against 47.9% in Rapid (272 games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 57.5%, draws 0.3% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 194 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 549 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 930 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 915 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 597 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.3%, draws 1.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 933 Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 45.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 272 Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 47.5% of its games and loses 49.8%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.