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Analyzer

King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense

3.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score38.1%Range (90% confident): 36.6% – 39.5%Based on 3.0K games
0%38.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 36.6% – 39.5%
Outcome Distribution
37.0%2.1%60.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Nc6
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense
Analyzen=3.0K
Avg Length24 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.1%

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 38.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 36.6% and 39.5%), based on 3.0K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -6.2% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.8 · Trap factor: +28.2 · n=3.0K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 18% → 8%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 17.9% win rate (18 games)
  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (63 games)
  • 1200-1399: 26.9% win rate (246 games)
  • 1400-1599: 34.7% win rate (571 games)
  • 1600-1799: 36.2% win rate (980 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.0% win rate (793 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.9% win rate (267 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.3% win rate (58 games)
  • 2500+: 7.7% win rate (5 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (43%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 35.1% win rate (1,076 games)
  • Blitz: 37.6% win rate (1,592 games)
  • Rapid: 40.2% win rate (323 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (9 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 23.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 23.1% expected score (136 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.5% expected score (101 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 33.0% expected score (230 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (295 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 35.0% expected score (284 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (575 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 32.5% expected score (118 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (201 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (487 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (104 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (131 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 35.4% expected score (91 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (45 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense
53.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense
52.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit
55.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense
51.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense
53.3%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 60.9% (90% CI: 59.4%-62.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 72.5% win rate for white (246 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (63.3%) outperforms Rapid (57.8%) by 5.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a sharpness score of 97.9 (very decisive), meaning 97.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 72.5% (90% CI: 67.8%-77.1%) win rate for white, based on 246 Lichess games. Average game length is 19 moves with a 0.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 64.0% (90% CI: 60.7%-67.3%) win rate for white, based on 571 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 61.4% (90% CI: 58.8%-63.9%) win rate for white, based on 980 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 55.2% (90% CI: 52.3%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 793 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 57.9% (90% CI: 52.9%-62.8%) win rate for white, based on 267 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 63.3% (90% CI: 60.9%-65.7%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 59.8% (90% CI: 57.7%-61.8%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a 57.8% (90% CI: 53.3%-62.3%) win rate for white (323 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense is statistically favors white with a 60.9% (90% CI: 59.4%-62.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.