King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense
3.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
38.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 39.5%.
Measured over 3.0K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.0K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.0K
- Best context
- 39.6% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Average game length
- 24 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.9%
- Draws
- 2.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 23.6% at 0-999, 11.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 23.9% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 23.1% expected score (136 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.5% expected score (101 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 33.0% expected score (230 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (295 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (40 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 35.0% expected score (284 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 39.6% expected score (575 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 32.5% expected score (118 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (201 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (487 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (104 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (131 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 35.4% expected score (91 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (45 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense scores 38.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 36.6% and 39.5% — from 3.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense, Black wins 37.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 60.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.1%. It rests on 3.0K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (58 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 38.9% in Blitz (1.6K games) against 41.2% in Rapid (323 games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense has a sharpness score of 97.9 (very decisive), meaning 97.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 24 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 26.9%, draws 0.6% and loses 72.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 27.2%. It rests on 246 Lichess games, which average 19 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 34.7%, draws 1.3% and loses 64.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.4%. It rests on 571 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 36.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 61.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.4%. It rests on 980 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 793 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 38.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 267 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 35.1%, draws 1.5% and loses 63.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.9%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 37.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 59.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.9%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 57.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 323 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 37.0% of its games and loses 60.9%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.