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King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit

97K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score59.0%Range (90% confident): 58.7% – 59.2%Based on 97K games
0%59.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 58.7% – 59.2%
Outcome Distribution
57.5%3.0%39.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c6
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit
Analyzen=97K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 59.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 58.7% and 59.2%), based on 97K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +20.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.0 · Trap factor: -25.6 · n=97K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.9% win rate (359 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.4% win rate (1,053 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.2% win rate (3,097 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.9% win rate (9,836 games)
  • 1600-1799: 58.7% win rate (23,889 games)
  • 1800-1999: 59.2% win rate (29,855 games)
  • 2000-2199: 57.3% win rate (20,706 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.8% win rate (7,857 games)
  • 2500+: 45.1% win rate (461 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (59%), worst in Classical (55%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 59.0% win rate (40 games)
  • Bullet: 57.3% win rate (23,398 games)
  • Blitz: 57.4% win rate (61,442 games)
  • Rapid: 58.0% win rate (11,819 games)
  • Classical: 54.5% win rate (414 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (68 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (589 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (377 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (86 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (1,535 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (237 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (3,027 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (5,826 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (931 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (4,761 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (15,998 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (3,007 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (5,327 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (19,795 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (4,556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (177 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (5,138 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (12,925 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (2,570 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,718 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (4,733 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (404 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (269 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (185 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 39.5% (90% CI: 39.3%-39.8%) win rate for white, based on 97K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.5% win rate for white (461 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (40.7%) outperforms Classical (39.8%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 43.5%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 359 Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 43.9%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.5%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 40.0% (90% CI: 39.2%-40.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 38.9% (90% CI: 38.4%-39.4%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 37.6% (90% CI: 37.1%-38.1%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 39.2% (90% CI: 38.6%-39.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.9%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 48.5% (90% CI: 44.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 461 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 40.7% (90% CI: 40.2%-41.3%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 39.3% (90% CI: 39.0%-39.6%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 38.4% (90% CI: 37.7%-39.1%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a 39.8% (90% CI: 35.9%-43.8%) win rate for white (414 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit is slightly favors black with a 39.5% (90% CI: 39.3%-39.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.