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King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit

97K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

59.0%

45%65%
Floor58.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.2%.

Measured over 97K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 97K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
97K
Best context
61.2% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Worst context
52.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +20.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.0 · Trap factor: −25.6 · 97K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 51.8%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (68 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (589 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (377 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (86 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (1,535 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (237 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (3,027 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (5,826 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (931 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (4,761 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (15,998 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (3,007 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (5,327 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (19,795 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (4,556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (177 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (5,138 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (12,925 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (2,570 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,718 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (4,733 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (404 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (269 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (185 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit scores 59.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 58.7% and 59.2% — from 97K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
97K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit, Black wins 57.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 97K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 60.8% (30K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 59.1% in Blitz (61K games) against 59.8% in Rapid (12K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.9%, draws 1.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 359 Lichess games, which average 21 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 57.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 58.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.9%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 59.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 37.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.8%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 57.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 50.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 461 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 57.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 57.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 58.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.8%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 54.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 414 Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 57.5% of its games and loses 39.5%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.