TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer

128K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.9%Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 46.2%Based on 128K games
0%45.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 46.2%
Outcome Distribution
44.2%3.4%52.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...exf4
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer
Analyzen=128K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 45.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 46.2%), based on 128K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.6 · Trap factor: -18.0 · n=128K

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~47%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (1,499 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (3,239 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (7,917 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.3% win rate (19,127 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.8% win rate (34,099 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.8% win rate (36,263 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.0% win rate (18,895 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.5% win rate (6,653 games)
  • 2500+: 48.3% win rate (389 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in UltraBullet (28%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 28.4% win rate (53 games)
  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (30,176 games)
  • Blitz: 43.9% win rate (76,912 games)
  • Rapid: 42.4% win rate (20,175 games)
  • Classical: 39.9% win rate (765 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (560 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (673 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (259 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,273 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (1,460 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (493 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (2,973 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (3,828 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 29.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (5,334 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (11,136 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (2,534 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (6,191 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (21,960 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (5,612 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (6,273 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (22,784 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (6,985 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (4,717 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (11,350 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (2,761 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (67 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (2,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (3,613 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (453 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (274 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 79.5% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Euwe Attack
56.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit
47.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit
48.2%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Walthoffen Attack
53.1%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 44.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 128K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 46.7% win rate for white (7.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (28.4%) by 18.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.7%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.4%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 42.8% (90% CI: 42.4%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 48.3% (90% CI: 44.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 389 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.1%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.1%) win rate for white (77K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 42.4% (90% CI: 41.8%-42.9%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer has a 39.9% (90% CI: 37.0%-42.8%) win rate for white (765 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer is slightly favors black with a 44.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.