1.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 48.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.1% and 50.2%), based on 1.6K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~47%)
Best in Classical (48%), worst in Bullet (43%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 49.5% win rate for white (456 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (47.8%) outperforms Bullet (42.9%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 38.7% (90% CI: 31.3%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 111 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 311 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 45.7%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 456 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 42.3%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 435 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 43.6% (90% CI: 37.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 174 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 42.9% (90% CI: 38.8%-47.0%) win rate for white (389 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-50.5%) win rate for white (951 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 41.8%-52.3%) win rate for white (244 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense is slightly favors black with a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-48.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.