21K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 52.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.5% and 52.6%), based on 21K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 47% → 49%
Best in Blitz (52%), worst in Classical (38%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 21K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (3.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (51.7%) outperforms Classical (38.4%) by 13.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.0%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 39.4%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 294 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.7%-50.6%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.4%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.4%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit has a 38.4% (90% CI: 32.4%-44.6%) win rate for white (169 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit is statistically balanced with a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.