12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 54.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.9% and 55.4%), based on 12K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 53% → 39%
Best in Classical (68%), worst in Rapid (53%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 58.2% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Classical (68.4%) outperforms Bullet (53.2%) by 15.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 48.5%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 306 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 58.1% (90% CI: 54.8%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 614 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 58.2% (90% CI: 55.8%-60.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 56.2% (90% CI: 54.4%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 561 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 42.5% (90% CI: 35.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 148 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.3%-55.1%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.4%-54.4%) win rate for white (7.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.4%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense is statistically favors white with a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.