584 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation has a 75.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 72.4% and 78.3%), based on 584 Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 43% → 64%
Best in Classical (90%), worst in Rapid (67%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation has a 74.6% (90% CI: 71.5%-77.5%) win rate for white, based on 584 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 76.1% win rate for white (250 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (78.3%) outperforms Rapid (67.2%) by 11.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 98.4 (very decisive), meaning 98.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation has a 71.8% (90% CI: 65.4%-77.9%) win rate for white, based on 137 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation has a 76.1% (90% CI: 71.6%-80.4%) win rate for white, based on 250 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 0.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation has a 74.2% (90% CI: 68.4%-79.6%) win rate for white, based on 161 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation has a 78.3% (90% CI: 71.3%-84.7%) win rate for white (100 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation has a 74.6% (90% CI: 70.8%-78.2%) win rate for white (380 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation is statistically favors white with a 74.6% (90% CI: 71.5%-77.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.