767 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.5% and 55.5%), based on 767 Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 69% → 60%
Best in Classical (54%), worst in Bullet (50%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 767 rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (158 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (52.0%) outperforms Rapid (50.5%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-58.8%) win rate for white, based on 158 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 44.8%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 235 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 40.2%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 165 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 42.4%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 109 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-54.7%) win rate for white (296 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a 52.0% (90% CI: 48.0%-56.0%) win rate for white (413 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit is statistically balanced with a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-54.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.