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King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit

4.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.4%Range (90% confident): 44.2% – 46.6%Based on 4.4K games
0%45.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.2% – 46.6%
Outcome Distribution
43.5%3.7%52.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Qh5
King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit
Analyzen=4.4K
Avg Length27 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 45.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 44.2% and 46.6%), based on 4.4K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -10.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 20%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200

  • 0-999: 42.8% win rate (1,341 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.1% win rate (991 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (945 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.0% win rate (598 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.2% win rate (364 games)
  • 1800-1999: 36.4% win rate (129 games)
  • 2000-2199: 30.4% win rate (33 games)
  • 2200-2499: 20.0% win rate (1 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Rapid (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.9% win rate (14 games)
  • Bullet: 46.2% win rate (801 games)
  • Blitz: 45.7% win rate (2,345 games)
  • Rapid: 37.3% win rate (1,148 games)
  • Classical: 43.5% win rate (94 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499————
2500+—————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (198 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (647 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (486 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (248 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (432 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (299 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (587 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.4% expected score (184 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (93 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (341 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.1% expected score (121 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (250 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 32.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 36.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: Abbazia Defense
46.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit
55.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Thorold Attack
59.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Urusov Attack
55.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Blackburne Gambit
57.5%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.3%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 45.5% win rate for white (945 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (45.7%) outperforms Rapid (37.3%) by 8.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 42.8% (90% CI: 40.6%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 41.5%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 991 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 45.5% (90% CI: 42.8%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 945 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 43.0% (90% CI: 39.6%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 598 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 39.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 364 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 36.4% (90% CI: 29.6%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 129 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.3%-49.1%) win rate for white (801 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit has a 37.3% (90% CI: 34.9%-39.6%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit is slightly favors black with a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.3%-44.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.