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King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense

325 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score50.8%Range (90% confident): 46.2% – 55.3%Based on 325 games
0%50.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.2% – 55.3%
Outcome Distribution
49.2%3.2%47.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
11.Rae1
King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense
Analyzen=325
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 50.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.2% and 55.3%), based on 325 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -4.2% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 29%

1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1200-1399: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 29.4% win rate (7 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.1% win rate (26 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.7% win rate (126 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.0% win rate (124 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (34 games)
  • 2500+: 29.4% win rate (7 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (57%), worst in Classical (18%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 57.3% win rate (64 games)
  • Blitz: 49.1% win rate (203 games)
  • Rapid: 42.9% win rate (51 games)
  • Classical: 17.6% win rate (7 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399————
1400-1599———
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (96 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: Abbazia Defense
46.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit
55.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Thorold Attack
59.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Urusov Attack
55.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Blackburne Gambit
57.5%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 325 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (124 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (57.3%) outperforms Rapid (42.9%) by 14.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 39.5%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 126 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 45.7%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 124 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 43.4%-54.9%) win rate for white (203 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense is slightly favors black with a 49.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-53.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.