1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 66.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 64.1% and 68.4%), based on 1.3K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~69%)
Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Blitz (64%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 65.0% (90% CI: 62.9%-67.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 69.4% win rate for white (185 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (70.2%) outperforms Blitz (63.7%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a sharpness score of 97.6 (very decisive), meaning 97.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 68.9% (90% CI: 61.6%-75.8%) win rate for white, based on 111 Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 69.4% (90% CI: 63.8%-74.9%) win rate for white, based on 185 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 66.1% (90% CI: 60.6%-71.4%) win rate for white, based on 202 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 62.2% (90% CI: 57.4%-66.9%) win rate for white, based on 279 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 64.1% (90% CI: 59.2%-69.0%) win rate for white, based on 255 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 63.0% (90% CI: 56.9%-69.0%) win rate for white, based on 169 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 64.6% (90% CI: 61.4%-67.9%) win rate for white (581 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 63.7% (90% CI: 60.3%-66.9%) win rate for white (568 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation has a 70.2% (90% CI: 64.0%-76.1%) win rate for white (153 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation is statistically favors white with a 65.0% (90% CI: 62.9%-67.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.