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Analyzer

King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense

144K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.0%Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.2%Based on 144K games
0%52.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.8% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
50.3%3.3%46.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qe7
King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense
Analyzen=144K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.8% and 52.2%), based on 144K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +5.1% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.3% win rate (4,948 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.2% win rate (6,298 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.2% win rate (10,290 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.7% win rate (22,316 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.2% win rate (43,627 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (42,849 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (11,642 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.5% win rate (2,354 games)
  • 2500+: 54.4% win rate (84 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.4% win rate (40 games)
  • Bullet: 49.6% win rate (22,943 games)
  • Blitz: 50.2% win rate (90,965 games)
  • Rapid: 51.1% win rate (29,491 games)
  • Classical: 53.2% win rate (969 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (776 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,656 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (1,495 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (3,341 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (1,892 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,766 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (5,764 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (2,580 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (169 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (4,243 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (13,468 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (4,302 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (292 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (5,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (29,217 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (8,125 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (314 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (5,554 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (28,360 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (8,824 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.6% expected score (109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (2,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (6,666 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (2,170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (796 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,453 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.1% expected score (102 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.3% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Euwe Attack
56.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit
47.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit
48.2%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Walthoffen Attack
53.1%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 144K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (6.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.1%) outperforms Bullet (49.6%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.1%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.5%) win rate for white (91K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.5%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-55.8%) win rate for white (969 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense is statistically balanced with a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.