7.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.1% and 52.9%), based on 7.6K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 59% → 27%
Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (2.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (53.7%) outperforms Rapid (44.4%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.9 (very decisive), meaning 97.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 259 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 49.3%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 987 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 39.4%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 185 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.7%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.6%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit has a 44.4% (90% CI: 41.9%-46.8%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit is statistically balanced with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.