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Analyzer

King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed

1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score41.4%Range (90% confident): 39.4% – 43.5%Based on 1.5K games
0%41.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 39.4% – 43.5%
Outcome Distribution
39.7%3.3%56.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Kf2
King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed
Analyzen=1.5K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 41.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 39.4% and 43.5%), based on 1.5K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -17.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.8% · Blitz best · Rapid worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 37% → 9%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 37.2% win rate (312 games)
  • 1000-1199: 31.9% win rate (182 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.2% win rate (357 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.3% win rate (314 games)
  • 1600-1799: 37.3% win rate (134 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.1% win rate (113 games)
  • 2000-2199: 31.9% win rate (44 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.3% win rate (53 games)
  • 2500+: 9.1% win rate (4 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (19%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.8% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 32.0% win rate (203 games)
  • Blitz: 43.6% win rate (1,033 games)
  • Rapid: 30.8% win rate (260 games)
  • Classical: 18.5% win rate (12 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 23.2% expected score (32 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (226 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 22.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 27.6% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (124 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 29.2% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (241 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 36.1% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (196 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 26.1% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 33.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (76 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 22.6% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: Abbazia Defense
46.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit
55.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Thorold Attack
59.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Urusov Attack
55.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Blackburne Gambit
57.5%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 39.7% (90% CI: 37.7%-41.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 44.2% win rate for white (357 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (43.6%) outperforms Rapid (30.8%) by 12.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 37.2% (90% CI: 32.7%-41.7%) win rate for white, based on 312 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 31.9% (90% CI: 26.3%-37.6%) win rate for white, based on 182 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 44.2% (90% CI: 39.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 357 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 42.3% (90% CI: 37.8%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 314 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 37.3% (90% CI: 30.6%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 134 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 44.1% (90% CI: 36.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 113 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 32.0% (90% CI: 26.8%-37.5%) win rate for white (203 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 43.6% (90% CI: 41.1%-46.2%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a 30.8% (90% CI: 26.2%-35.6%) win rate for white (260 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed is slightly favors black with a 39.7% (90% CI: 37.7%-41.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.