26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 47.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.1% and 48.1%), based on 26K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 56% → 60%
Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 26K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.7% win rate for white (78 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.7%) outperforms Classical (40.3%) by 7.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 359 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 42.3%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.0%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 828 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.8%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.8%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.4%-46.0%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation has a 40.3% (90% CI: 32.7%-48.0%) win rate for white (109 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation is slightly favors black with a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.