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King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense

1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.0%Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.1%Based on 1.2M games
0%53.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.1%
Outcome Distribution
51.3%3.3%45.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.exd5
King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense
Analyzen=1.2M
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 53.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 53.1%), based on 1.2M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.0% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.0% win rate (20,757 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.9% win rate (54,881 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.8% win rate (114,459 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.5% win rate (216,193 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.3% win rate (336,804 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (323,504 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.9% win rate (131,121 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.6% win rate (27,317 games)
  • 2500+: 50.7% win rate (1,705 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Bullet (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.8% win rate (710 games)
  • Bullet: 50.5% win rate (269,798 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (737,957 games)
  • Rapid: 52.4% win rate (211,433 games)
  • Classical: 53.3% win rate (6,843 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (6,650 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (10,748 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (3,293 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (14,675 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (30,566 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (9,511 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (99 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 66.4% expected score (81 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (26,839 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (66,255 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (20,727 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (175 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (45,120 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (128,583 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (40,565 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (1,750 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (293 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (62,789 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (209,997 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (61,105 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (2,620 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (68 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (61,744 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (203,579 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (56,641 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (1,472 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (36,676 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (76,078 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (18,066 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.6% expected score (288 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (14,002 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (11,763 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (1,511 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 72.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (388 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.4% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: Abbazia Defense
46.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit
55.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Thorold Attack
59.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Urusov Attack
55.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Blackburne Gambit
57.5%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (55K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.3%) outperforms Bullet (50.5%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 114K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 216K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 337K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 324K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 131K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-56.8%) win rate for white (710 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.6%) win rate for white (270K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white (738K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.6%) win rate for white (211K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.3%-54.3%) win rate for white (6.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.