What is the Danish Gambit expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the Danish Gambit family has a 55.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.3% and 55.4%), aggregated from 9 variations and 6.0M Lichess games.
Danish Gambit
9 variations · 6.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Danish Gambit gives White a 55.4% expected score — a strong opening choice.
With a minimum advantage of 10.6%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.
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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 55.3% – 55.4%Aggregated from 9 variations
0%55.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.3% – 55.4%
ContextOverall · n=6.0M
Outcome Distribution
53.8%3.1%43.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.c3
Danish Gambit
Variations9
Games (Context)6.0M
Avg Length31 moves
Draw Rate3.1%
White Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 52% → 50%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 51.7% win rate (143,460 games)
- 1000-1199: 54.1% win rate (381,994 games)
- 1200-1399: 54.4% win rate (829,596 games)
- 1400-1599: 54.4% win rate (1,249,802 games)
- 1600-1799: 54.3% win rate (1,461,063 games)
- 1800-1999: 53.5% win rate (1,180,829 games)
- 2000-2199: 52.2% win rate (540,906 games)
- 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (160,564 games)
- 2500+: 49.7% win rate (18,339 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Classical (52%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 58.0% win rate (3,564 games)
- Bullet: 54.1% win rate (1,437,289 games)
- Blitz: 53.8% win rate (3,449,993 games)
- Rapid: 53.5% win rate (1,043,672 games)
- Classical: 52.0% win rate (32,035 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (120 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (49,861 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (68,725 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (24,556 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (198 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (230 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (108,432 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (213,003 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (59,637 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (692 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.7% expected score (512 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (191,622 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (485,150 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (149,308 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (3,004 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.0% expected score (1,447 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (256,625 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (735,874 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (245,873 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (9,983 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (787 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (281,859 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (881,449 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (285,539 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (11,429 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (256 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (258,493 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (717,310 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (199,163 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (5,607 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (124 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (172,523 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (295,772 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (71,493 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (994 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (84 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (101,106 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (51,210 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (8,042 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (122 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (16,768 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,500 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 66.0% expected score (61 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (9)
1
Danish Gambit Accepted: Copenhagen Defense433K games
2
Danish Gambit Accepted: Classical Defense288K games
3
Danish Gambit Accepted2.1M games
Danish Gambit Accepted: Chigorin Defense90K games
Danish Gambit2.4M games
Danish Gambit Accepted: Svenonius Defense7.2K games
Danish Gambit Accepted: Schlechter Defense91K games
Danish Gambit Declined: Sörensen Defense156K games
Danish Gambit Declined: Sorensen Defense320K games
Analyze Danish Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Danish Gambit win rate?
The Danish Gambit family has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.7%-53.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 9 variations and 6.0M rated games from Lichess.
How many Danish Gambit variations are there?
This analysis covers 9 Danish Gambit variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Danish Gambit perform best?
The Danish Gambit family performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (830K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Danish Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
UltraBullet (58.0%) outperforms Classical (52.0%) by 6.0% across all Danish Gambit variations.
How sharp is the Danish Gambit?
Danish Gambit games are 96.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Danish Gambit a good opening family?
The Danish Gambit family is statistically favors white overall with a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.7%-53.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 9 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.