TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Ponziani Opening

13 variations · 8.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Ponziani Opening gives White a 52.2% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 4.4%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

You play
Play This
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 52.2%Aggregated from 13 variations
0%52.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 52.2%
ContextOverall · n=8.5M
Outcome Distribution
50.4%3.6%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.c3
Ponziani Opening
Variations13
Games (Context)8.5M
Avg Length32 moves
Draw Rate3.6%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Ponziani OpeningTop Pick
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.c3
Min adv +7.1% · n=3.7M
53.6%
#2Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.c3 Nf6 4.Bc4
Min adv +0.8% · n=828K
50.5%
#3Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit, Schmidt Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.c3 f5 4.d4 d6 5.d5
Min adv -2.0% · n=12K
49.8%
#4Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.c3 d5 4.Bb5
Min adv -4.4% · n=47K
48.2%
#5Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.c3 d5 4.Bb5 dxe4 5.Nxe5 Qd5 6.Qa4
Min adv -4.9% · n=1.8K
49.5%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Ponziani Opening expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Ponziani Opening family has a 52.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.2% and 52.2%), aggregated from 13 variations and 8.5M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.8% win rate (619,941 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.6% win rate (1,129,683 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.0% win rate (1,589,069 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.7% win rate (1,876,063 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.5% win rate (1,680,919 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.8% win rate (1,097,550 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.6% win rate (410,214 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.1% win rate (118,667 games)
  • 2500+: 50.6% win rate (13,598 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.2% win rate (3,426 games)
  • Bullet: 51.4% win rate (1,972,980 games)
  • Blitz: 50.3% win rate (4,488,436 games)
  • Rapid: 49.7% win rate (2,000,201 games)
  • Classical: 48.5% win rate (70,661 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (203 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (134,200 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (331,234 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (153,235 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (1,069 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (470 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (255,723 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (593,078 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (274,690 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (5,722 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (860 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (346,648 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (837,830 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (390,381 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.9% expected score (13,350 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (1,288 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (397,319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,001,457 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (453,599 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (22,400 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (374 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (360,450 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (892,283 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (407,455 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (20,357 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (125 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (254,170 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (589,492 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (247,006 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (6,757 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.0% expected score (60 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (144,657 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (198,805 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (65,819 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (873 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (69,172 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (41,560 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (7,807 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (90 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (10,641 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (2,697 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.1% expected score (209 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.9% expected score (43 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (13)

1
Ponziani Opening3.7M games
53.6%
2
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation74K games
52.2%
3
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack3.6M games
51.7%
Ponziani Opening: Réti Variation18K games
52.0%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit828K games
50.5%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit, Schmidt Attack12K games
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation18K games
49.1%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation47K games
48.2%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit1.8K games
49.5%
Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit24K games
47.4%
Ponziani Opening: Leonhardt Variation11K games
47.4%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit197K games
46.7%
Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit30K games
43.6%
Analyze Ponziani Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening win rate?

The Ponziani Opening family has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.4%) win rate for white, aggregated from 13 variations and 8.5M rated games from Lichess.

How many Ponziani Opening variations are there?

This analysis covers 13 Ponziani Opening variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening perform best?

The Ponziani Opening family performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (1.6M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Ponziani Opening better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (54.2%) outperforms Classical (48.5%) by 5.7% across all Ponziani Opening variations.

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening?

Ponziani Opening games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Ponziani Opening a good opening family?

The Ponziani Opening family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.4%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 13 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.