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Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit

30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score43.6%Range (90% confident): 43.1% – 44.1%Based on 30K games
0%43.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.1% – 44.1%
Outcome Distribution
42.1%3.0%54.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bc5
Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit
Analyzen=30K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 43.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.1% and 44.1%), based on 30K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.5 · Trap factor: -4.5 · n=30K

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (1,545 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (2,682 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.8% win rate (3,357 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.9% win rate (3,995 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.1% win rate (4,868 games)
  • 1800-1999: 39.5% win rate (5,766 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.1% win rate (4,891 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.6% win rate (2,556 games)
  • 2500+: 43.8% win rate (477 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (43%), worst in UltraBullet (8%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 7.7% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 41.6% win rate (5,473 games)
  • Blitz: 41.7% win rate (15,230 games)
  • Rapid: 43.0% win rate (9,110 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (319 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (231 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (789 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (523 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (324 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,250 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (405 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (1,352 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (561 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (1,872 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (1,482 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (79 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (724 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (2,442 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (1,611 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (951 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (3,235 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (1,524 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.9% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (957 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (2,697 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (1,211 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (993 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (1,275 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (285 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (327 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (125 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit
45.4%
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Leonhardt Variation
45.7%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate?

The Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 42.1% (90% CI: 41.6%-42.6%) win rate for white, based on 30K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 47.1% win rate for white (2.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (43.0%) outperforms Classical (42.9%) by 0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit?

The Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 43.8% (90% CI: 42.4%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 42.9% (90% CI: 41.6%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 41.1% (90% CI: 39.9%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 39.5% (90% CI: 38.4%-40.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 40.1% (90% CI: 39.0%-41.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 41.6% (90% CI: 40.0%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 43.8% (90% CI: 40.1%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 477 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 41.6% (90% CI: 40.5%-42.7%) win rate for white (5.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 41.7% (90% CI: 41.1%-42.4%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.2%-43.9%) win rate for white (9.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a 42.9% (90% CI: 38.4%-47.5%) win rate for white (319 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit is slightly favors black with a 42.1% (90% CI: 41.6%-42.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.