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Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.7%

45%60%
Floor52.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.2%.

Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
24K
Best context
58.3% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
49.0% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.6% at 0-999, 43.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (166 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (319 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (915 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (372 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (415 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (1,526 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (914 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (520 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,134 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (1,190 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (532 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (2,152 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,388 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (59 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (582 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (2,242 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (1,100 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (563 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (2,186 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (761 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (716 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (1,387 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (258 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (341 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (216 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.2% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation
50.2%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
46.3%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit scores 52.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.1% and 53.2% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate?

Playing the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit, Black wins 50.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 56.8% (562 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.7% in Blitz (13K games) against 53.1% in Rapid (6.1K games).

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit?

The Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 55.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 562 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 44.2%, draws 11.0% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 577 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 50.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.2%, draws 6.8% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 211 Lichess games.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.7% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.