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Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.2%

40%55%
Floor47.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.6%.

Measured over 47K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 47K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
47K
Best context
51.9% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
45.6% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.2% at 0-999, 53.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (321 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,679 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (634 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (556 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (2,834 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,713 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (640 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (3,385 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (2,846 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (86 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (754 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (4,232 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (3,215 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (236 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,047 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (4,567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (2,936 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (302 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (4,885 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (2,684 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (110 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (634 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (2,705 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (1,124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (746 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (920 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (230 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (88 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation
50.2%
Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit
42.1%
Continuations (1)
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit
46.8%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation scores 48.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 48.6% — from 47K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
47K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate?

Playing the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 51.4% (1.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.5% in Blitz (25K games) against 47.9% in Rapid (15K games).

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 45.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 44.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.5%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.8%, draws 6.7% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 140 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 45.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 43.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 790 Lichess games.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.3% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.