Ponziani Opening
13 variations · 8.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
52.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 8.5M games at this level and clock.
A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.5M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- #21 of 56
- Games in this context
- 8.5M
- Best context
- 57.1% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.1% at 0-999 Classical
- Variations measured
- 13
- Average game length
- 32 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.1% at 0-999, 57.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (203 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (134,200 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (331,234 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (153,235 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (1,069 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (470 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (255,723 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (593,078 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (274,690 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (5,722 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (860 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (346,648 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (837,830 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (390,381 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.9% expected score (13,350 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (1,288 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (397,319 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,001,457 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (453,599 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (22,400 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (374 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (360,450 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (892,283 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (407,455 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (20,357 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (125 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (254,170 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (589,492 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (247,006 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (6,757 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.0% expected score (60 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (144,657 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (198,805 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (65,819 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (873 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (38 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (69,172 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (41,560 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (7,807 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (90 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (10,641 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (2,697 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.1% expected score (209 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.9% expected score (43 games)
13 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Ponziani Opening family scores 52.2% for White — we are 90% confident it is 52.2% — from 8.5M Lichess games across 13 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 8.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Ponziani Opening win rate?
Across the Ponziani Opening's 13 variations, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 8.5M rated games from Lichess.
How many Ponziani Opening variations are there?
13 Ponziani Opening variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Ponziani Opening perform best?
The Ponziani Opening family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Ponziani Opening better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Ponziani Opening scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.2% in Blitz (4.5M games) against 51.9% in Rapid (2.0M games).
How sharp is the Ponziani Opening?
Ponziani Opening games are 96.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Ponziani Opening a good opening family?
The Ponziani Opening family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 50.4% and loses 46.0%. Results differ between its 13 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.