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Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.0%Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 51.6%Based on 18K games
0%51.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 51.6%
Outcome Distribution
48.7%4.5%46.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...f6
Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation
Analyzen=18K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 51.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.4% and 51.6%), based on 18K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 64% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 64.3% win rate (63 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.3% win rate (184 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.5% win rate (428 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.7% win rate (882 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.6% win rate (1,764 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (3,439 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.4% win rate (5,602 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (4,530 games)
  • 2500+: 38.5% win rate (859 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (52%), worst in Classical (46%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.2% win rate (4,059 games)
  • Blitz: 48.1% win rate (10,728 games)
  • Rapid: 51.8% win rate (2,826 games)
  • Classical: 46.2% win rate (138 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 66.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (98 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 69.6% expected score (52 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (83 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (209 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (131 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (175 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (459 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (245 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (970 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.4% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (691 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,075 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (636 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (939 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (3,762 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (862 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (2,808 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (464 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (484 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (313 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation
50.2%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
46.3%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate?

The Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (859 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.8%) outperforms Classical (42.7%) by 6.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation?

The Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 41.2% (90% CI: 35.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 184 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 38.8%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 428 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 44.5%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 882 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 43.7%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 859 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-50.1%) win rate for white (4.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.0%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.0%-44.1%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 35.8%-49.6%) win rate for white (138 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.1%.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.