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Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.0%

45%55%
Floor50.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.6%.

Measured over 18K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
18K
Best context
55.0% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Worst context
47.7% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.5%
Draws
4.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.9% at 0-999, 41.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 66.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (98 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 69.6% expected score (52 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (83 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (209 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (131 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (175 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (459 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (245 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (970 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.4% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (691 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,075 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (636 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (939 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (3,762 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (862 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (2,808 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (464 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (484 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.1% expected score (313 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation
50.2%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
46.3%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation scores 51.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.4% and 51.6% — from 18K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
18K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate?

Playing the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation, Black wins 48.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 64.7% (63 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (11K games) against 54.7% in Rapid (2.8K games).

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation?

The Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 56.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 184 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 55.5%, draws 1.7% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 428 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.7%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 882 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.5%, draws 9.4% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 859 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 51.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.2%, draws 11.1% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 138 Lichess games.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Steinitz Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.7% of its games and loses 46.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.