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Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit

30K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

56.4%

45%60%
Floor56.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.9%.

Measured over 30K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 30K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
30K
Best context
63.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
49.1% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +15.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.5 · Trap factor: −4.5 · 30K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.2% at 0-999, 52.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (231 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (789 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (523 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (324 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (1,250 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (405 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (1,352 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (561 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (1,872 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (1,482 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (79 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (724 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (2,442 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (1,611 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (951 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (3,235 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (1,524 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 69.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (957 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (2,697 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (1,211 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (993 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (1,275 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (285 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (327 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (125 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation
50.2%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
46.3%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit scores 56.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.0% and 56.9% — from 30K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
30K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate?

Playing the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit, Black wins 54.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 30K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 58.9% (5.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 56.7% in Blitz (15K games) against 55.4% in Rapid (9.1K games).

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit?

The Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 54.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 56.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 57.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 56.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 55.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 49.8%, draws 6.4% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 477 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 56.5%, draws 1.9% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 55.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 53.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 52.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 319 Lichess games.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 54.9% of its games and loses 42.1%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.