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Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit

197K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.3%

45%60%
Floor53.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.5%.

Measured over 197K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 197K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
197K
Best context
56.4% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
48.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +13.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.8% at 0-999, 38.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,927 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (4,338 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (1,489 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (4,086 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (8,840 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3,522 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (6,258 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (14,292 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (6,140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (157 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (9,080 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (21,227 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (8,441 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (365 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (10,196 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (24,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (9,848 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (484 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (9,510 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (20,742 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (7,293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (7,493 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (8,129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (2,191 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (4,045 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,618 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (206 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (349 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation
50.2%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
46.3%
Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit
42.1%
Continuations (1)
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit, Schmidt Attack
48.2%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit scores 53.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.1% and 53.5% — from 197K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
197K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate?

Playing the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 197K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 54.2% (38K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.0% in Blitz (103K games) against 52.4% in Rapid (39K games).

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit?

The Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 52.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 46.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 422 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 53.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 53K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 51.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 103K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 49.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.8% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.