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Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit

197K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score53.3%Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 53.5%Based on 197K games
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 53.5%
Outcome Distribution
51.8%3.0%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...f5
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
Analyzen=197K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 53.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.1% and 53.5%), based on 197K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +13.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.9% win rate (7,764 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.3% win rate (16,503 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.0% win rate (26,856 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.7% win rate (39,136 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.2% win rate (44,667 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.5% win rate (37,737 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.5% win rate (17,841 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.1% win rate (5,870 games)
  • 2500+: 46.6% win rate (422 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in UltraBullet (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.5% win rate (49 games)
  • Bullet: 53.4% win rate (52,944 games)
  • Blitz: 51.4% win rate (103,384 games)
  • Rapid: 50.6% win rate (39,134 games)
  • Classical: 49.9% win rate (1,285 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,927 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (4,338 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (1,489 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (4,086 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (8,840 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3,522 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (6,258 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (14,292 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (6,140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (157 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (9,080 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (21,227 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (8,441 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (365 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (10,196 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (24,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (9,848 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (484 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (9,510 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (20,742 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (7,293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (7,493 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (8,129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (2,191 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (4,045 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,618 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (206 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (349 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation
50.2%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
46.3%
Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit
42.1%
Continuations (1)
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit, Schmidt Attack
48.2%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate?

The Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 197K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 47.2% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (45.8%) outperforms Classical (45.7%) by 0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit?

The Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.7%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 43.8%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 422 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-44.9%) win rate for white (53K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.6%) win rate for white (103K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.3%) win rate for white (39K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 43.5%-48.0%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit is slightly favors black with a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.