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Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit

828K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.5%

45%55%
Floor50.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.6%.

Measured over 828K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 828K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
828K
Best context
53.6% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
45.0% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +2.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.1% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.2% at 0-999, 57.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (57 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (17,950 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (35,418 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (19,618 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (156 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (33,996 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (59,174 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (29,866 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (822 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (203 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (44,275 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (78,452 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (36,511 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (1,509 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.7% expected score (406 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (49,619 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (88,807 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (36,096 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (45,812 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (78,336 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (28,557 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (1,228 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (30,893 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (47,866 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (16,231 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (419 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (16,573 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (13,189 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (3,453 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (7,002 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (2,112 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (369 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (939 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (75 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 86.4% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation
50.2%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
46.3%
Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit
42.1%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit scores 50.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.4% and 50.6% — from 828K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
828K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate?

Playing the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 828K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 51.5% (161K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (403K games) against 49.4% in Rapid (171K games).

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit?

The Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 124K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 161K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 177K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 154K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 95K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 45.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 42.3%, draws 6.8% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 58.4%, draws 0.5% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 912 Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 247K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 403K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 171K Lichess games.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 45.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.9% of its games and loses 47.9%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.