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Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack

3.6M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.4%Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 48.4%Based on 3.6M games
0%48.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 48.4%
Outcome Distribution
46.5%3.7%49.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nbd2
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
Analyzen=3.6M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 48.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.3% and 48.4%), based on 3.6M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...d5 · Black wins: 52.8% · n=3.1M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.9% win rate (290,092 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (510,090 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.4% win rate (684,443 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.4% win rate (762,923 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.1% win rate (663,452 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.9% win rate (429,209 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.1% win rate (165,257 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.8% win rate (49,277 games)
  • 2500+: 38.8% win rate (6,727 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.2% win rate (1,177 games)
  • Bullet: 45.9% win rate (777,313 games)
  • Blitz: 46.5% win rate (1,853,148 games)
  • Rapid: 46.9% win rate (895,576 games)
  • Classical: 47.5% win rate (34,256 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (80 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (60,966 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (153,671 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (74,844 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (531 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (181 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (110,065 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (266,992 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (130,194 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (2,658 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (340 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (140,616 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (356,113 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (180,952 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (6,422 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (295 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (153,865 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (398,084 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (199,660 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (11,019 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (134,880 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (346,080 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (172,454 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (9,889 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (92,109 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (228,949 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (104,796 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (3,290 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (52,575 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (83,008 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (29,257 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (391 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 37.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (27,022 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (18,843 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (3,339 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (5,215 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (1,408 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.3% expected score (80 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.8% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Ponziani Opening: Romanishin Variation
50.2%
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
46.3%
Ponziani Opening: Vukovic Gambit
42.1%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate?

The Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.6M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (49K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (47.7%) by 3.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack?

The Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 290K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 510K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 684K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 763K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 663K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 429K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 165K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 49K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.1%-53.9%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.7%) win rate for white (777K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) win rate for white (1.9M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) win rate for white (896K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.2%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack is statistically balanced with a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.