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Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit

1.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 51.5%Based on 1.8K games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 51.5%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%5.3%47.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Qa4
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit
Analyzen=1.8K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit has a 49.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 51.5%), based on 1.8K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -4.6% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.6% win rate (18 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.5% win rate (15 games)
  • 1200-1399: 35.4% win rate (31 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.2% win rate (60 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (94 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.8% win rate (406 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.0% win rate (585 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.4% win rate (543 games)
  • 2500+: 54.5% win rate (60 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (48%), worst in Classical (33%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (461 games)
  • Blitz: 48.4% win rate (1,077 games)
  • Rapid: 41.3% win rate (259 games)
  • Classical: 33.3% win rate (15 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (271 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 31.4% expected score (71 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (94 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (410 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (76 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (236 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (265 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit
45.4%
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Leonhardt Variation
45.7%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit win rate?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.4% win rate for white (543 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.4%) outperforms Rapid (41.3%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 40.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 406 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 42.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 585 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 543 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit has a 46.6% (90% CI: 42.8%-50.4%) win rate for white (461 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.9%-51.0%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit has a 41.3% (90% CI: 36.3%-46.3%) win rate for white (259 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit is slightly favors black with a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.9%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.