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Analyzer

Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.4%Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 47.9%Based on 24K games
0%47.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.9% – 47.9%
Outcome Distribution
45.4%3.9%50.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bd7
Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit
Analyzen=24K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 47.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.9% and 47.9%), based on 24K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.8% win rate (562 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.3% win rate (1,631 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.2% win rate (2,871 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.4% win rate (3,888 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.8% win rate (4,131 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.1% win rate (3,980 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.3% win rate (3,530 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.5% win rate (2,371 games)
  • 2500+: 44.9% win rate (577 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in Rapid (45%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.0% win rate (4,175 games)
  • Blitz: 45.3% win rate (13,077 games)
  • Rapid: 45.0% win rate (6,078 games)
  • Classical: 52.9% win rate (211 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (166 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (319 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (915 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (372 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (415 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,526 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (914 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (520 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (2,134 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (1,190 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (532 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,152 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (1,388 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (59 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (582 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (2,242 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (1,100 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (563 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (2,186 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (761 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (716 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (1,387 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (258 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (341 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (216 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Leonhardt Variation
45.7%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit, Schmidt Attack
48.2%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate?

The Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 47.1% win rate for white (4.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (52.9%) outperforms Rapid (45.0%) by 7.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit?

The Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 41.8% (90% CI: 38.4%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 562 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 44.3% (90% CI: 42.2%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.7%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.5%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 44.3% (90% CI: 42.9%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 45.5% (90% CI: 43.9%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 41.5%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 577 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 11.0% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.7%-47.3%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.0%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.0%-46.1%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 47.3%-58.5%) win rate for white (211 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.