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Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.2%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.6%Based on 47K games
0%48.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.3%3.8%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bb5
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation
Analyzen=47K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 48.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 48.6%), based on 47K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.5% win rate (2,638 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (5,134 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.0% win rate (6,958 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.1% win rate (8,442 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (8,852 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.3% win rate (8,782 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.6% win rate (4,484 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.5% win rate (1,899 games)
  • 2500+: 49.8% win rate (140 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (83%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 82.6% win rate (10 games)
  • Bullet: 47.0% win rate (5,888 games)
  • Blitz: 46.4% win rate (25,256 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (15,385 games)
  • Classical: 43.3% win rate (790 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (321 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,679 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (634 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (556 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (2,834 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,713 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (640 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (3,385 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (2,846 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (86 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (754 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (4,232 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (3,215 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (236 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,047 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (4,567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (2,936 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (302 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (4,885 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (2,684 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (110 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (634 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (2,705 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (1,124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (746 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (920 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (230 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (88 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Ponziani Opening
51.8%
Variations (5)
Ponziani Opening: Caro Gambit
45.4%
Ponziani Opening: Jaenisch Counterattack
49.8%
Ponziani Opening: Leonhardt Variation
45.7%
Ponziani Opening: Neumann Gambit
48.9%
Ponziani Opening: Ponziani Countergambit
45.2%
Continuations (1)
Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation, Harrwitz Attack, Nikitin Gambit
46.8%
Analyze Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation perform best?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.5% win rate for white (1.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.0%) outperforms Classical (43.3%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 43.9%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 43.3%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 42.9%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 140 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.1%) win rate for white (5.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.0%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.5%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 40.4%-46.2%) win rate for white (790 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation a good opening?

The Ponziani Opening: Spanish Variation is slightly favors black with a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.