TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Center Game

16 variations · 15M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Center Game gives White a 52.4% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 4.7%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

You play
Play This
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.4%Aggregated from 16 variations
0%52.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.4%
ContextOverall · n=15M
Outcome Distribution
50.6%3.5%45.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Qxd4
Center Game
Variations16
Games (Context)15M
Avg Length31 moves
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Center Game expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Center Game family has a 52.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 52.4%), aggregated from 16 variations and 15M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.2% win rate (1,675,906 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.5% win rate (2,578,080 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.1% win rate (3,070,800 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.5% win rate (2,957,928 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.0% win rate (2,375,576 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.0% win rate (1,552,721 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.6% win rate (703,586 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.7% win rate (254,582 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (33,721 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.4% win rate (56,356 games)
  • Bullet: 52.4% win rate (3,978,321 games)
  • Blitz: 50.5% win rate (7,941,448 games)
  • Rapid: 49.0% win rate (3,117,287 games)
  • Classical: 47.8% win rate (109,488 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (2,690 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (357,885 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (938,310 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (373,927 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (3,094 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (5,895 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (519,584 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,448,157 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (593,389 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (11,055 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (10,385 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (648,064 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,643,017 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (741,409 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (27,925 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (17,578 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (694,497 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (1,554,948 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (653,573 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (37,332 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (14,058 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (684,391 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,205,456 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (450,843 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (20,828 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (3,870 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (542,110 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (768,509 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (230,574 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (7,658 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (1,269 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (336,363 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (300,209 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (64,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (1,372 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (576 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (167,237 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (77,795 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (8,793 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (181 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (28,190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5,047 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (406 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (43 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (16)

1
Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit, Schippler Gambit69K games
57.0%
2
Center Game: Kieseritzky Variation1.3M games
56.1%
3
Center Game5.5M games
55.4%
Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit49K games
55.0%
Center Game: Paulsen Attack Variation1.6M games
54.1%
Center Game: von der Lasa Gambit363K games
53.9%
Center Game: Ross Gambit137K games
52.7%
Center Game: Halasz-McDonnell Gambit708K games
52.5%
Center Game: Berger Variation855K games
52.5%
Center Game: Kupreichik Variation290 games
55.0%
Center Game: Hall Variation279K games
50.1%
Center Game: Halasz-McDonnell Gambit, Crocodile Variation5.7K games
49.0%
Center Game: l'Hermet Variation2.9K games
49.3%
Center Game: Charousek Variation4.7K games
48.6%
Center Game: Normal Variation4.0M games
47.1%
Center Game Accepted277K games
43.1%
Analyze Center Game PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Center Game win rate?

The Center Game family has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, aggregated from 16 variations and 15M rated games from Lichess.

How many Center Game variations are there?

This analysis covers 16 Center Game variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Center Game perform best?

The Center Game family performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (704K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Center Game better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.4%) outperforms Classical (47.8%) by 5.6% across all Center Game variations.

How sharp is the Center Game?

Center Game games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Center Game a good opening family?

The Center Game family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.6%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 16 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.