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Center Game

16 variations · 15M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3.Qxd4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

52.4%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 15M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
#19 of 56
Games in this context
15M
Best context
57.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
45.7% at 0-999 Classical
Variations measured
16
Average game length
31 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.0% at 0-999, 52.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (2,690 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (357,885 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (938,310 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (373,927 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (3,094 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (5,895 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (519,584 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,448,157 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (593,389 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (11,055 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (10,385 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (648,064 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,643,017 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (741,409 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (27,925 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (17,578 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (694,497 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (1,554,948 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (653,573 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (37,332 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (14,058 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (684,391 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,205,456 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (450,843 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (20,828 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (3,870 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (542,110 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (768,509 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (230,574 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (7,658 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (1,269 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (336,363 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (300,209 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (64,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (1,372 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (576 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (167,237 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (77,795 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (8,793 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (181 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (28,190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5,047 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (406 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (43 games)

16 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit, Schippler Gambit69K games
57.0%Floor 56.7%
2
Center Game: Kieseritzky Variation1.3M games
56.1%Floor 56.0%
3
Center Game5.5M games
55.4%Floor 55.4%
Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit49K games
55.0%Floor 54.6%
Center Game: Paulsen Attack Variation1.6M games
54.1%Floor 54.0%
Center Game: von der Lasa Gambit363K games
53.9%Floor 53.8%
Center Game: Ross Gambit137K games
52.7%Floor 52.5%
Center Game: Halasz-McDonnell Gambit708K games
52.5%Floor 52.4%
Center Game: Berger Variation855K games
52.5%Floor 52.4%
Center Game: Kupreichik Variation290 games
55.0%Floor 50.2%
Center Game: Hall Variation279K games
50.1%Floor 49.9%
Center Game: Halasz-McDonnell Gambit, Crocodile Variation5.7K games
49.0%Floor 47.9%
Center Game: l'Hermet Variation2.9K games
49.3%Floor 47.8%
Center Game: Charousek Variation4.7K games
48.6%Floor 47.4%
Center Game: Normal Variation4.0M games
47.1%Floor 47.1%
Center Game Accepted277K games
43.1%Floor 42.9%
Analyze Center Game PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Center Game family scores 52.4% for White — we are 90% confident it is 52.4% — from 15M Lichess games across 16 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
15M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Center Game win rate?

Across the Center Game's 16 variations, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 15M rated games from Lichess.

How many Center Game variations are there?

16 Center Game variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Center Game perform best?

The Center Game family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.8% (34K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Center Game better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Center Game scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (7.9M games) against 51.1% in Rapid (3.1M games).

How sharp is the Center Game?

Center Game games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Center Game a good opening family?

The Center Game family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 50.6% and loses 45.9%. Results differ between its 16 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.