Center Game: Berger Variation
855K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.7%.
Measured over 855K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 855K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 855K
- Best context
- 55.0% at 0-999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 38.4% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.5%
- Draws
- 3.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.1% at 0-999, 46.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (18,080 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (44,497 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (12,108 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.5% expected score (56 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.1% expected score (32 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (31,258 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (87,849 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (34,230 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (429 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.4% expected score (43 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (35,250 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (88,637 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (40,606 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (1,510 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.5% expected score (27 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (33,729 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (72,952 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (29,889 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (1,808 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (30,848 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (56,092 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (18,866 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (1,050 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (29,009 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (48,946 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (10,504 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (419 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (23,072 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (39,399 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (5,572 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (229 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (20,256 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (26,252 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (2,221 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (76 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (6,317 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (2,364 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (171 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Center Game: Berger Variation scores 47.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 47.7% — from 855K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 855K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate?
Playing the Center Game: Berger Variation, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 855K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Center Game: Berger Variation perform best?
The Center Game: Berger Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.8% (75K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Center Game: Berger Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Center Game: Berger Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.7% in Blitz (467K games) against 51.0% in Rapid (154K games).
How sharp is the Center Game: Berger Variation?
The Center Game: Berger Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 50.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 154K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 166K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 138K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 89K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 34.7%, draws 9.5% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 37.5%, draws 0.9% and loses 61.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.0%. It rests on 165 Lichess games.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 228K Lichess games.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 467K Lichess games.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 154K Lichess games.
What is the Center Game: Berger Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 50.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.
Is the Center Game: Berger Variation a good opening?
The Center Game: Berger Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.8% of its games and loses 50.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.