Center Game: Normal Variation
4.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 4.0M games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.0M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.0M
- Best context
- 62.0% at 1000-1199 Classical
- Worst context
- 43.5% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.8% at 0-999, 52.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (232 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (98,192 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (223,890 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (76,885 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.7% expected score (442 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (443 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (166,167 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (446,171 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (167,834 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (2,326 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (490 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (200,874 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (542,067 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (236,187 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (7,328 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (508 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (202,981 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (467,794 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (209,844 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (10,560 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (306 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (174,412 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (289,224 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (117,021 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (5,191 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (124 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (102,013 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (121,576 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (41,358 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (994 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (111 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (48,176 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (27,202 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (5,957 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (84 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (82 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (18,348 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (6,268 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (1,100 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (2,165 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (645 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (61 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (9 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Center Game: Normal Variation scores 52.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.9% and 53.0% — from 4.0M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.0M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate?
Playing the Center Game: Normal Variation, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 4.0M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Center Game: Normal Variation perform best?
The Center Game: Normal Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 57.2% (400K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Center Game: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Center Game: Normal Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.1% in Blitz (2.1M games) against 56.0% in Rapid (856K games).
How sharp is the Center Game: Normal Variation?
The Center Game: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 55.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 400K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 783K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 987K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 892K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 586K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 266K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 82K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.6%, draws 8.1% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.4%, draws 1.0% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.0M Lichess games.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 51.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 2.1M Lichess games.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 53.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 856K Lichess games.
What is the Center Game: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 58.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.0%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.
Is the Center Game: Normal Variation a good opening?
The Center Game: Normal Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.0% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.