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Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit

49K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.0%

45%60%
Floor54.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.4%.

Measured over 49K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 49K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
49K
Best context
58.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
48.8% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.1%
Draws
2.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +12.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.6% at 0-999, 37.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (924 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,805 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,265 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,459 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (2,668 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (955 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (54 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (2,045 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (4,370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,372 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (101 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (2,692 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (5,163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (1,964 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 68.6% expected score (82 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (3,520 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (4,725 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (1,851 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (3,202 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (3,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (938 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (2,130 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (1,258 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (986 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (189 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (92 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 22.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Center Game
53.6%
Variations (5)
Center Game: Normal Variation
45.2%
Center Game: Paulsen Attack Variation
52.3%
Center Game: Kieseritzky Variation
54.5%
Center Game: Berger Variation
50.7%
Center Game: Halasz-McDonnell Gambit
51.1%
Continuations (1)
Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit, Schippler Gambit
55.8%
Analyze Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit scores 55.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.6% and 55.4% — from 49K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
49K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate?

Playing the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit, White wins 53.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 49K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit perform best?

The Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 57.4% (3.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 54.8% in Blitz (23K games) against 53.8% in Rapid (8.6K games).

How sharp is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit?

The Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 55.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 54.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 55.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 56.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 56.1%, draws 0.8% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 320 Lichess games.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 54.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 53.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games.

What is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 53.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 223 Lichess games.

Is the Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit a good opening?

The Center Game: Lanc-Arnold Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.5% of its games and loses 43.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.