King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit
1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.1M
- Best context
- 52.4% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 35.0% at 1600-1799 Classical
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.2%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (355 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (32,865 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (110,647 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (65,879 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (705 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (652 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (29,027 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (100,198 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (65,164 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (1,934 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (1,530 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (34,161 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (85,139 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (56,631 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (3,004 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (3,806 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (41,014 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (74,668 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (38,495 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (3,011 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (3,979 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (47,995 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (60,861 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (23,120 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.0% expected score (1,104 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (1,250 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (50,520 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (43,574 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (11,158 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (303 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (398 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (41,665 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (14,697 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (2,576 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (33 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (271 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (22,409 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 35.9% expected score (1,781 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.2% expected score (156 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.0% expected score (3,117 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (57 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit scores 44.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.4% and 44.5% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate?
Playing the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit, Black wins 42.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit perform best?
The King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 45.8% (210K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 44.0% in Blitz (492K games) against 43.3% in Rapid (263K games).
How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit?
The King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 42.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 210K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 40.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 197K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 180K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 161K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 137K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 59K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.0%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.7%, draws 1.3% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 303K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 41.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 492K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 263K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 38.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.
Is the King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit a good opening?
The King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.2% of its games and loses 53.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.