Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation

15M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
2.d3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.7%

45%55%
Floor50.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 15M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
15M
Best context
55.1% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
Worst context
41.5% at 0-999 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.2% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.5% at 0-999, 52.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (3,679 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (383,106 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (892,871 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (443,926 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (4,486 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (8,665 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (668,735 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,186,049 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (410,106 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (11,484 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (17,781 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,007,306 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,671,975 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (472,759 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (20,383 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (27,243 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,113,315 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,800,124 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (501,445 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (29,312 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (11,477 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (994,458 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,333,017 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (333,389 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (12,351 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (4,640 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (709,569 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (568,707 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (124,435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (2,128 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (937 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (344,550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (128,534 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (20,449 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (322 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (119,551 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (17,227 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.9% expected score (53 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (15,636 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (1,962 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense
50.7%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation scores 50.7% for White — we are 90% confident it is 50.7% — from 15M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
15M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 15M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 52.4% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.8% in Blitz (7.6M games) against 49.2% in Rapid (2.3M games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation?

The King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 3.2M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 3.5M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 2.7M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 495K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 138K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 46.7%, draws 11.3% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.0%, draws 1.4% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 75K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 5.4M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 7.6M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 46.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 42.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 80K Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.7% of its games and loses 47.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.