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King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense

6.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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h8
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2...Qf6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.3%

45%55%
Floor48.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 6.2M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.2M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
6.2M
Best context
55.3% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
37.0% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Be7 · Black wins: 52.9% · 2.2M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 40.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (1,677 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (163,004 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (439,461 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (190,233 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (1,250 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3,874 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (228,435 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (676,079 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (283,260 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (5,026 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (5,346 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (272,181 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (773,012 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (367,727 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (12,053 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (4,493 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (277,917 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (699,002 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (353,471 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (19,290 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (2,261 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (220,597 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (442,742 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (230,080 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (10,953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.0% expected score (733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (139,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (182,230 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (79,857 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (2,362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.2% expected score (119 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (57,652 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (33,754 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (8,303 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (158 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (16,533 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (3,644 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.0% expected score (341 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 36.2% expected score (245 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (84 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense
50.7%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense scores 48.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 48.4% — from 6.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
6.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 6.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (404K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.5% in Blitz (3.3M games) against 46.8% in Rapid (1.5M games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense?

The King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 796K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 907K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 404K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 100K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 35.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 58.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.5%. It rests on 333 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.5%, draws 1.1% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 3.3M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 51K Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.5% of its games and loses 50.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.