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King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense

6.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.3%Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 48.4%Based on 6.2M games
0%48.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 48.4%
Outcome Distribution
46.5%3.5%50.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Qf6
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
Analyzen=6.2M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 48.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.3% and 48.4%), based on 6.2M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Be7 · Black wins: 52.9% · n=2.2M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.5% win rate (795,625 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (1,196,674 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (1,430,319 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.8% win rate (1,354,173 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.8% win rate (906,633 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.7% win rate (404,340 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (99,986 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.1% win rate (20,524 games)
  • 2500+: 35.7% win rate (333 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.5% win rate (18,507 games)
  • Bullet: 48.7% win rate (1,375,722 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (3,250,008 games)
  • Rapid: 44.7% win rate (1,513,276 games)
  • Classical: 41.9% win rate (51,094 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (1,677 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (163,004 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (439,461 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (190,233 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (1,250 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3,874 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (228,435 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (676,079 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (283,260 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (5,026 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (5,346 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (272,181 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (773,012 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (367,727 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (12,053 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (4,493 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (277,917 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (699,002 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (353,471 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (19,290 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (2,261 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (220,597 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (442,742 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (230,080 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (10,953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.0% expected score (733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (139,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (182,230 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (79,857 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (2,362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.2% expected score (119 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (57,652 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (33,754 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (8,303 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (158 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (16,533 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (3,644 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.0% expected score (341 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 36.2% expected score (245 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (84 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense
50.7%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate?

The King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.7% win rate for white (333 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.9%) outperforms Bullet (49.3%) by 4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense?

The King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 796K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 907K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 404K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 100K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 58.7% (90% CI: 54.3%-63.1%) win rate for white, based on 333 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.0%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.4%) win rate for white (1.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.7%) win rate for white (3.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.1%) win rate for white (1.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.2%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense is statistically balanced with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.